On Stocks and FB

It was only when I got here in Korea that I started to dream of owning financial stocks from which I can grow my hard-earned money from. And in the considerable time that I have been far from home, my exposure to the social media that is FACEBOOK has also grown considerably large. And my, do I mean large. I take a look at my photo albums and they are all shots from my (mis) adventures here. It has been a calming refuge, a great past time. So what’s the catch- stocks and Facebook?

Well, devoid all the financial expertise which I don’t have anyway, I actually told myself that if I had money to buy shares of any company, I might dig on Facebook. Its CEO however, stick to not engage in any initial public offerings (IPO) in the near-term.

Facebook, the famed online social media company, is just five years old. Yet it has grown heaps not only in the United States but internationally. 70% of the current 400 million Facebook users are from outside the social network’s home base in Palo Alto, California. Along with the growth of this social frenzy, controversies currently surround, most pressed of which are the privacy issues.

That’s what our incredible Harvard guy, Mark Zuckerberg, was intensely sweating for in this interview.

I still think Zuckerberg is an awesomely cool CEO at 26. It must be those curls.

Facebook has since gotten support from venture capitalists, and these cash-rich, high-risk investors have put in considerable investments on the company's growth and expansion. No wonder Zuckerberg is all systems go with every update and upgrades and updo's. No one would want to disappoint these investors.

Facebook received its very first donation from Paypal in June 2004 at US$500,000. In 2006, it raked in about US$25 million from Silicon Valley investors. And the supports go on as Facebook heads on with improvements and progress. The results of all the efforts may actually be gleaned more clearly now.

For one, Facebook's market share in the online social networking market has grown tremendously. In the Philippines alone, it dried up the long-running fan base of the once, coolest social networking site, Friendster. And in March 2010, Facebook made that milestone of getting more traffic than Google in the United States on a weekly basis.

Now that is a WOW. It faintly tells of how people would generally want to get information these days. Seems like everybody wants the straight talk over the quiet search and reads.

Now, the big question: Is Facebook really worth the share?

It should come in to anyone as outright risky. Facebook's beginnings resemble those IT firms in the DOT.com bubble of the early 2000's that amassed money to guarantee a stream of income for investors who are eager to bank on the bright spot of technology and the internet in the future. In 2008, Facebook revealed in its financial plans the release of US$200 million for expenditures on servers and storage, while earnings were only estimated to be at around US$50 million. Now that was even a negative cash flow right there.

Where and how will the company work on their profits, then? Advertising will almost automatically come into play, and it has actually been Facebook's main lifeline for revenues. I would even like to think that Facebook's issues on privacy stem from their efforts to increase advertising for added revenue streams.

Sure, the HUUUUGE number of users are there, but for social media, people have been as fickle minded as ever, ready to switch to another when they stop getting benefits or end up paying to get benefits. Facebook's wide database of competitors is always ready to welcome any shifters. So there is no way Zuckerberg is going to get any money from its million users. That is unless a bigger entity buys them up and just work their way on profits from there.

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The Underdog

Today is a special non-working holiday in South Korea (yey to Wednesdays!) because of the country’s elections. I therefore had the privilege to execute such a loser’s act, when I went out to buy dollars today. Of all days, good Lord.

The USDKRW exchange rate in Mid-May has since climbed to the 1,200 spot, and it's been a bad fifth month of the year considering April's rate, which was just around 1,125. Now we all know that North Korea is to be blame for all this, apart from that crisis in Europe. Forecasts of 1,240 for the Korean won by the end of June even came about. So in anticipation of further depreciation, I went ahead and exchanged some amount that I can send back home. I just didn't expect that it would overly jump to almost that 1,230 peak in just a day with this news from another Asian neighbor.

Prime Minister Hatoyama Resigns
Barely making it a year in office, Prime Minister Hatoyama announced in June 2 that he is stepping down. He’s the fourth Japanese prime minister to resign from the top position since 2007, and this immediately spurred fear of more political and economic uncertainties.

The current political instability is making Japan’s weak economy dependent on the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policies, which is still not effective due to threats of deflation bulging in.

Due to Failed Social and Security Issues: Recent Japan-US Relations
The United States has long asked Japan to have its marines stay put in Okinawa as part of its global military strategy. Prime Minister Hatoyama initially said that he won’t allow it, but after back-and-forth negotiations, Hatoyama said he had no choice and gave in to maintaining US military visibility in the said city. This offended some coalition partners and disappointed local citizens, and in less than a year of unclear economic policies along with the already failed social and security issues, Hatoyama resigned.

New Prime Minister Needed the Soonest Possible Time

There springs Mr. Naoto Kan, the current finance minister, which most people believe will be the economic driver needed to compensate for the social and security failures that Hatoyama brought in his eight months of public term. Mr. Kan has been outspoken in favor of a weaker yen, which analysts see would boost exports. He has also been associated with the hopes of a PRO-growth economic policy, which Japan badly needs, given the deflationary threats on its economy.

PRO-growth economic policy
1.) Tax cuts for corporations are to be considered.
2.) Promoting and reasserting its global standing in infrastructure and high-technology
3.) Establishment of domestic policy that entices entrepreneurship and more favorable business conditions

I won’t be surprised if Japan continuously clamors for such growth, at this time (or more so at this time) when the whole world still sees Japan with its “Lost Decade” slogan. Since the gradual asset bubble collapse (high land values at almost 0% interest rate— very cheap credits!) of the country, Japan has practically become the economic underdog.

While these new hopes for better economic policies come out from Hatoyama’s resignation, there are the inevitable uncertainties that Kan’s new character seem to bring to the table. Mr. Kan’s gained the impression of being quite flamboyant and of taking contradicting statements.

Japan’s Long-Term Economic Challenges

1.) Public debt is more than 150% of GDP: It is already of common knowledge that inflation can always raise the rate at which the government has to repay the bonds that it issues (money that it borrows). Lucky that the Japanese had the common sense to save more than spend, which helped in easing inflationary pressures. Yet Japan’s fiscal debt issues resurface in anticipation of the retirement of its growing aging population. This can always spur back pressures on inflation.

2.) Deflation: There are always those two sides of a coin with deflation. There is the good kind of deflation brought about by surplus expansion and the bad kind brought about by demand shrinkage. The latter has apparently slapped on Japan pretty hard, given less consumption from the frugal Japanese. And I need not elaborate more on how constrained consumption is downright bad for any economy’s growth.

This is why I want to go and visit Japan. I have always been for the underdogs. I want to know how the country is.

And so with this little story and that underdog sentiment, the yen (and almost all Asian currencies) went down against the US dollar. Oh, and guess what. The next day I will find out that the Won goes back to 1,200 to a US dollar. Pfft!

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Sushi Poppers

The new wave of poppers are here! I like! Haha.

The product is downright Asian, but the manufacturing is American. More importantly, the approach is so kid-like, this should be my new brand of popsicle anytime. Haha!

Honestly, I'm just hoping they'd do the same with South Korea's kimbap. I just thought it would make my typical morning breakfast on the road a little easier.

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On Airports

I just got home from sending-off a friend at South Korea’s Incheon International Airport, and realized that I’ve been to the airport more than I have been to any place in South Korea in less than six months. That’s not considering my workplace which will obviously take the number one spot in my top recurring destinations in South Korea. That’s four times so I could fetch people arriving here, and four times to send them back home to the Philippines.

Okay fine, so my weekly trips to the church may take the real second spot, but I guess what I am just trying to get here is the airport’s just been too much, and I don’t seem to like the feeling of it.

But to set the record straight, it’s not like I have qualms over welcoming or sending-off people at the airport, nor such tasks have been much of a disturbance to me.

I had these thoughts upon getting back to the apartment because as I was walking my way to the AREX tonight (the train connecting the airport to Seoul’s metro rail system), I had the same pangs of sadness, which doesn’t really feel good when you’ve just been from a good kind of high from seeing family and friends who came over to visit and tour with you.

It’s a long walk from the airport departure grounds to the AREX area, if I may tell, and it’s usually that dark, wide and barren area in the airport, so those moments of sadness can really take a toll on you.

I never liked airports. My childhood memory has branded it as such a taboo, a place for sure- ball traumas. Visits to the airport for me meant the end of fun weekend mall trips and complete family dinners. It meant no more chocolates on the fridge and no more splurge of new stuffs to be fancied from a dad who’s willing to give it all. It’s because dad needs to go back to work, in a place far away from home. The airport is, always in my mind, the one who can always take my dad away.

I remember telling myself one time when I was a kid that I will never marry a soldier, a pilot, a seaman, or anyone who has to be away for a considerable amount of time for work. A week or two for some work-related trips may do, but I said I would not want to apply the term “monthly allotment” to my everyday life. Being the kid that I was, I cared so much about the uneasiness that such situation may bring, devoid of the real painful reason why so many people, including my father, needed to do it.

Never did I realize that I have actually tried to dodge on being the one who’s left behind by being the one who needs to leave. But here’s the thing. What made it painful for us family before was that we cannot afford to visit our father in that faraway workplace. Now that I have people who can afford to visit me, I still get that feeling of being left behind.

Just my two cents of emotional rollercoaster high.

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The Future

Everyone in my workplace is so stoked to predicting the future. They want to be the one who gets ahead with what’s ahead. It’s that unforeseeable future that forces all to come up with mile-long mathematical models and an equally unfathomable gut feel of things to break it. In knowing the future, they get a sense of assurance from the unsure and either avoid any pitfalls or win over some advantage.

I caught on the online website of a magazine called the FUTURIST, which basically blabs everything about forecasts, trends, and ideas of the future. I must say that the list to follow are some of the most (laughably) fascinating things to expect, if ever. Read on, for I found them so fun to imagine. Who doesn’t want telepathies and artificial micro- islands? The ET’s are just too scary to think, though.

Top 10 Forecast for 2010
(I know it’s already almost half of 2010, but hey, they seem to be applicable, still in the next coming years).

1. Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mobile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections in real-world settings, including love connections. One day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recommending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Serendipity is currently being commercialized by MIT researchers. —Erica Orange, “Mining Information from the Data Clouds,” July-Aug 2009, p. 17

2. In the design economy of the future, people will download and print their own products, including auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to design, customize, and print objects from their home computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these devices could disrupt manufacturing business models, resulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to every customer’s desire. —Thomas A. Easton, “The Design Economy,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 43

3. The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuroscientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communication between brains is possible, so long as “communication” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, could be used to pick up specific signals and convey them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and send it to another helmet. —Patrick Tucker, “Reinventing Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 23

4. Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writing descriptions of the problems they want to solve, and then letting computers find the solutions. Invention programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary algorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects, such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engineering specifications. Continued advances will increasingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of biology and computer science. As a result, we will develop not only software that can produce better inventions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their environments. —Robert Plotkin, “The Automation of Invention,” July-Aug 2009, p. 24

5. Micronations built on artificial islands will dramatically shift the face of global politics. New forms of government and unusual political models will begin to emerge, including corporate nation-states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function countries, cause-related countries, and even rental nation-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for a year or two to test a specific project. —Thomas Frey, “Own Your Own Island Nation,” May-June 2009, p. 30

6. Young people will read more, and the old will play more video games. According to the 2007 American Time Use Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older spent nearly twice as much time playing video games (about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 spent twice as much time reading as they did before (about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for games or casual surfing. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 14

7. Ammonia may become the fuel of choice for cars by 2020. As a candidate source for hydrogen used in fuel cells, ammonia (comprising one nitrogen and three hydrogen atoms) is plentiful, easier to liquefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than carbon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the climate. —J. Storrs Hall, “Ammonia, the Fuel of the Future,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 10

8. Algae may become the new oil. According to researchers at a Department of Energy plant in New Mexico, single-celled microalgae, grown in pond water, produce a biofuel that is lead-free and biodegradable, emits two-thirds less carbon dioxide and other pollutants than gasoline, and can run any modern diesel engine. Even better, algae require only a fraction of the land area of biofuel-producing crops. —Robert McIntyre, “Algae’s Powerful Future,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 25

9. Radical methods of altering the planet may be the only way to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Geoengineering may be inevitable because, even if humans could instantly end all greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would continue to increase for the next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more warming. Potential megascale geoengineering projects include sending space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing plankton blooms in the seas. —Jamais Cascio, author of Hacking the Earth, reviewed by Bob Olson, July-Aug 2009, p. 51

10. The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed or conclusively denied within a generation. New space missions and advanced computer technology could confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that at least 20%—and perhaps as many as 60%—of Sun-like stars could have rocky planets. Next generation, AI-driven space probes may allow us to plot the location of every planetary body in the known universe. Among the more than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, probably one has some form of life, according to Dimitar Sasselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard University’s Origins of Life Initiative. —Gregory Georgiou, “The Real Life Search for E.T. Heats Up,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 20

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Dallae's Story

"I’ve been a PUPPET, a pauper, a pirate, a poet and a king; I’ve been up and down and over and out, and I know one thing; each time I fall flat on my face, I pick myself up and get back in the race.”

There’s just something so helplessly infantile with puppets that makes you want to simply leave them for the children to enjoy, but they’re free tickets to a show and a diverse way of appreciating history and culture, alongside this art of “giving life” to stuffed and sewn cloths... I snagged free tickets to a Czech marionette performance entitled, “A Dallae Story” at the National Theatre of Korea. Yep, a Czech marionette it is!

So as to level up the art of puppetry to something that is more theatre place-worthy, it calls itself a marionette. Marionettes are more precisely distinguished from the typical glove or finger puppetry since they use strings or wires and require skilled manipulation of these wires for the puppets to move. Prague, Czech Republic’s capital city, is well-known for this particular art.

The poster for the play is already enticing to start with, showing off pinks and reds in an aura that generally looks so rustic to me. It must be that puppet’s rich black hair and brown, farmer-like shorts.

And true to the poster’s short-liners like,

“Meet the story that swept the overseas audiences off their feet” and
“Fascinated by the simple, no-frills stage that exudes a sense of authenticity and a Korean sentiment”…

It does have that BIG heart. Not to mention one of the most humbling feeling drawn from Dallae, the war-stricken orphan, who lost his genuinely in-love parents in the Korean War.

When you have war as background to a story plot, tendencies to yawn and droop your eyes may come easily (lol). Come on, war stories are sad. It thugs you right through, so something must happen to your face to react.

The lull moments of the play were nevertheless jolted back by varied theatrical effects, from the conventional to the contemporary ones. There were the projector-supported silhouettes that set the change of mood and location for the real actors and actresses, while big drapes set the stage for the coming of life of the puppets.

Now most of us are pretty much used to watching puppets just in half or supported by some thin or transparent wires, since efforts are poured in to make them appear real despite the fact that some hand or stick are manipulating them from wherever. Dallae, the lead puppet character, therefore came in a bit uncomfortable to me to watch when he first went out of the stage with two people who held him on both hands and feet to move and perform scenes with the real actors. It takes a minute of trying to steer clear of Dallae’s “manipulators” and a couple of minutes to realize how much more there is to looking at both the puppet and its manipulators with such grace and sophistication.

     

What won me overall was how the play was able to lighten such a heavy sentiment— the loss of someone you love— with portrayals of happy thoughts and hopeful dreams in Dallae. The big paper fishes swimming in his thoughts (moved by another manipulator), along with his fabric-made dog were down right inspiring to watch.

National Theatre of Korea
Line 3 (Orange Line), Exit 2
Dongguk University Station
(Take shuttle bus in Taegukdang afterwards)

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A Day After the Elections

I should probably give the ex-president’s son the benefit of the doubt. Besides, as I have said, he’s never really been a bad guy to me-- just not much of a doer (so far) to fit the role of a president, when you got other candidates who have done more. Especially if it’s an economically lagging and impoverished country like the Philippines, competent economic management is vital. I mean, investors have long fled and no one would currently want to even think of the Philippines as a good buy. I may then need to bank on this man's supposed clean character and hope that this would eventually push the Philippines to its full potential.

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Election Day: The Lesser Evil Prevails

I suppose the “voting-for-the-lesser-evil” logic has prevailed. The Philippines has moved forward in automating this year’s elections, yet its ways of voting are still way too backward. Oligarchy and political dynasties still rule. Oh well.

For the record, I have nothing ill to speak about Ninoy Aquino who is currently leading the polls. I just don’t like the kind of emotion that the people poured onto the guy. It makes him the type who can be easily swayed. But hey, I may be too harsh.

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Why I Am Putting My Stakes on Gordon

My dear blog, please allow me to highlight my Philippines this time around. Thanks.

Tomorrow, the Filipinos will partake in what I feel is a very important right and obligation for them— voting in the presidential elections. I have already done my share of the “absentee voting” at the Philippine embassy in South Korea a week before. That marked just my second time to cast my vote, yet I feel the need to express my more independent stance on life-changing political decisions like these at this time around. I guess this is what getting out from under your parents’ skirts do to you, much so if life has recently allowed you to physically leave a country you desperately want to go back to in the hope of reliving it with more realizable hopes and dreams.

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Seoul International Friendship Day 2010

I went out this nice Saturday weekend with a friend who informed me about this year’s Seoul International Friendship Day. I saw how this event turned out last year and it has been such a fun and memorable event, so it’s never really that hard to check out what’s in store for everyone this time around. The weather was so good today, too. It would be too sick to just stay at home.

It was held at the same venue as last year (Seoul City Hall)-- in that outdoor area in front of the Seoul Hotel Plaza. As usual, a lot of booths were set up though I must say that it has doubled this year. Unlike the previous year when each country had just one booth to showcase everything (food, clothes, handicrafts, etc), this year’s event provided for each country two separate booths for food and non-food (clothes, accessories, handicrafts, etc.) items.

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